Articles
| JUN 2010 | JUL 2010 | AUG 2010 | SEPT 2010 | OCT 2010 |
This first article is dedicated to a wise old buddy who taught me most of what I know today about sports wagering. A quite guy, who always seemed to be happy while talking sports or handicapping sports, and he even managed to make a nice little living while wagering on sporting events. I noticed it wasn't always easy, but he managed to hit or come near his designated target more often than not.
The Plus 6 Rule...................The Plus 6 rule is actually a goal, and the second most important rule for folks trying to make money wagering on sporting events. It sort of goes hand-in-hand with the first rule which is proper money management. The Plus 6 rule is a very simple but not as easily attained as you might think.
The Plus 6 rule is that you should try and win 6 more units than you lose each month from the games that you select and wager on. As mentioned, this is no easy task but it can be reached with dedication, hard work, good information, proper money management, and maybe just a pinch of luck. If you really stop to think about it, you have 30 days each month to accomplish this Plus 6 high water-mark.
The keys to attaining a Plus 6 each month are:
1) Be selective and don't wager on a ton of picks each and every day. There should be some days that you don't find any plays at all.
2) Don't start laying big juice numbers such as -130, -150, -170, etc. You get the idea. You start losing some of those type of wagers and it will be even harder to attain that Plus 6.
3) Concentrate on finding picks that are at even or plus money +110, +130, etc.
4) Although we frown on parlays, sometimes it is worth taking a 2 team parlay to limit your losses. An example: you can take two -200 games in a parlay and win at a plus 1.25 units when you hit both picks. Risking 1 unit to win 1.25units. A loss of either game would only mean a -1.0 unit. It is true that parlays don't pay out at true odds, but for what we are trying to do, this is a sound way to wager.
5) A combination of all the above and pick some winners
The bottom line with the Plus 6 rule is that you must be very cautious on the amount of money you are laying vs. the potential payout. Do this and you will find your way inching toward that Plus 6 each and every month. By the way, did you know you can change the Plus 6 rule to a Plus 4 rule or a Plus 5 rule or any Plus number to fit into your own handicapping comfort zone?
At the end of a each month if you happen to hit only a Plus 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 and your target was Plus 6, don't get discouraged as any plus number is a very good thing for you the handicapper. Equally important is that you don't have to limit yourself to a Plus 6. If your original target is Plus 6 and you are rolling along during the month and you find yourself at Plus 8 or 9, by all means keep it going.
I'm sure that many of you are thinking that the Plus 6 rule sounds like winning Plus 6 units means you are hardly winning anything substantial, well think again. If you win Plus 6 units each month and you are a $100 player, than that would mean a net profit of $7,200 for the year. If you were a $1000 player, than you are right if you guessed that you would profit $72,000 on the year.
My old buddy passed away about a year and a half ago and he is surely missed. I never did ask him if the Plus 6 rule was one of his own making or an idea from someone else that he picked up and tweaked to meet his needs. All I know is that it worked for him, and it has helped me keep focused with a attainable and profitable goal each and every month. Thank you my good friend and Rest In Peace!
Michael Bubulka
Sharp and Steady Sports Picks
You just completed your handicapping of today's available sporting events and you decide to wager on a couple of totals in soccer and you take a favorite in baseball. So do you consider your handicapping for the day to be complete? If your answer is yes, it could be that you just missed a golden opportunity to find a solid prop play!
Proposition plays are generally wagers that involve individual players or a specific event during the course of a game and have nothing to do with who might win or lose the game. There are long range proposition wagers that allow you to pick and place your bet on who might win the World Series, Super Bowl, NHL Championship, etc. but we will take a quick look at the game specific type propositions.
Before we start, we do want you to realize that these proposition type wagers can be more "bookie" friendly than player friendly. These props would fall under the category where parlays fall. If not used properly or under the right circumstances, can deplete a bankroll in a real hurry.
Let us take a look at three of our favorite money making propositions that are sometimes offered and readily available with certain sportsbooks. The first example is in College Football. Houston @ Tulsa......and you see the line set at Tulsa -1 and the Over/Under is at 70. Those set lines and totals make sense, especially considering the offensive type prowess these two teams show us each and every game. Throw in the fact that their defenses are average and no wonder the total is set at 70. Now the way we see it is that the number "70" is telling us that there should be an expectation of 8-9-10 TD's in that game.
Now the proposition! If you are fortunate enough to find it......you might find a prop that says "The Longest TD in the game will be Over/Under 55 Yards." So you can wager on whether the longest TD in that game will be Over or Under that 55 yard offering.
It is our reasoning that you go Over that 55 yard offering knowing that there should be 8-9-10 TD's scored in the game and you only need "1" I repeat "1" long TD play over 55 yards and you cash the ticket. The probability under these circumstances with two teams winging the ball around and some quick athletes on the field of having one play for a TD over 55 yards is more likely to happen than not.
In this particular example, the actual game resulted in 2 long TD's over 55 yards.
Since World Cup Soccer was just in full swing our second example will be in soccer. Brazil vs Chile........and you see Brazil -1 and the Over/Under 2 1/2 . Those lines make sense as the right team is favored and that favored team has good defense and will be playing an attacking Chile team.
Now the proposition! If you are fortunate enough to find it.....you might find a prop that says "Total corner kicks during regulation/stoppage time over/under 10." So you can wager on whether there will over or under 10 total corner kicks in this game during regulation plus stoppage time.
It is our reasoning that you go Over the 10 corner kicks because you have one offensive minded team Chile who will attack at all cost leaving themselves open to counter attacks by a great offensive Brazil team. If you can imagine some 30 to 40 shots being headed toward net, it only makes sense that there will be a lot of deflections and blocked shots resulting in numerous corners being given. The probability of 10 corners being given in this situation is greater than not.
In this particular example, the actual game resulted in 14 corners.
Its time for our third example and as the NFL season is right around the corner, its time to use an NFL game example.
This game was played a few years ago and I'm using it as an example because it is a weather related play. The game was between Carolina and New England and if memory serves me correctly Carolina was favored by -2 and the total was around 33. At the time these two teams met the line and total were set about right as both teams had some very good defense.
Now the proposition! If you are fortunate enough to find it......you might find a prop that says "Total Fumbles lost Over/Under 2." So you can wager that there will be more than 2 fumbles lost or less than 2 fumbles lost.
It was my reasoning that you go Over the 2 lost fumbles for a couple of reasons this particular game. The first reason is that it was cold and raining heavily. Many times in these situations the ball becomes wet and slippery and it does lead to more balls hitting the ground. Secondly, at the time these two teams were both good defensively and both were very highly ranked at creating turnovers. The combination of the wet ball and defensive prowess of both made this prop a strong play.
In this particular example there were 3 fumbles lost in the first half alone.
I'd like to remind everyone that these are just examples and you will not win each and every prop that you wager on. You will find that there are many different propositions available for many different games and if you do your research you will find some very solid and high percentage proposition plays.
It is up to you to eliminate those 50/50 propositions that you see offered. Some examples of propositions that we never even consider.
1) Who will win a coin toss? Team A or Team B
2) Which team will score first? Team A or Team B
3) The last score of the game will be a TD or FG?
4) Player vs player hits, yardage, any type of scoring (unless an injury gives you an advantage)
5) Will there be a score in the first 5 minutes, 1st inning, etc
If you really stop to think about it, as you read through the proposition choices available and you answer or think to yourself
"How the hell I do I know"............than its probably not worth even thinking about placing such a wager!
The main suggestions we can offer to you regarding the selection of possible money making props are....
1) Visualize the game in your mind. Look for a prop that should happen and probably will happen based on circumstances in that particular game. If you find yourself saying, I HOPE this will happen, than you are back to that 50/50 mindset and you won't have the advantage.
2) For those outdoor sports, check the weather for possible solid proposition plays. Some of the easiest prop tickets to cash are because of mother nature messing with the game.
3) Check for player injuries. Sometimes a player might not play as much as they usually do in a game, and you just might find a prop that could be won because of an injury.
4) Know the officials, umpires, referees, linesman, etc. for the game and proposition you are thinking about. You better believe that the decisions made by a game official can make for an easy prop win or loss so do your homework.
5) Emotion. Make sure the players and teams involved in your prop have their head(s) in the game or maybe depending on the type of proposition, you may need them to not be focused at all. Know their state of mind.
At the beginning of this short article we mentioned that the Proposition wager can be more "bookie" friendly than "player" friendly especially if not used or played properly. However, do know this. If you do your research and make solid plays where the percentage is in your favor........ players can beat the book! Last year I read somewhere that the Sportsbooks generally lose money on a fairly steady basis offering those propositions. Maybe that is why some of those propositions offered have low betting limits and high juice (20 and 40 cent lines) associated with them.
Remember..........There are some very high percentage propositions out there for you just waiting to be found. Good luck and happy hunting!
Michael Bubulka
Sharp and Steady Sports Picks
Go on and say it again! I'm taking the White Sox at +105 tonight because there is a lot of value with the White Sox and that number. I think if I hear that "V" word again I will never use a word that begins with that letter ever again.
What is Value anyway? Most will say that Value is that the line or odds offered on a given team are not a true reflection of a teams true chances of winning or losing in that particular situation. So if I understand that correctly than in our example of the White Sox at +105 and if it is considered value by taking the White Sox at +105 than the White Sox should really be favored by -115 instead of +105, Right? Now I say, according to who?
The more I think about this word "Value" the more I'm starting to think that there isn't such a thing in sports handicapping and wagering. Before you start throwing darts at me in disagreement, please hear me out.
In the morning we all get up the same way. We start to do our handicapping and for the sake of keeping this simple we will use soccer as our game of choice to be capped. So what are we looking for? We are looking for an edge that one team has over another team and how that particular game might be played out. Ah yes, we found it. A game we think we have found a decided advantage of one team over another team so now its time to see those odds and lines offered by the various bookmakers worldwide.
We decide on Everton vs Arsenal Over 2 1/2 Total Goals at +115/+120. WOW.......plus money for something that we think is going to happen. After all my handicapping I am certain and I know we have a decided advantage so taking that Over at +115/+120 has to be some good value...right? I mean that is why we are placing this wager isn't it? This example isn't aimed at anyone who took this wager, besides I liked it to but it just so happens I don't touch first or second games very often. The outcome of this match was a 1-1 final and a losing wager. But what happened to the value?
Could it be "Value" is in the eye of the beholder? We are all individuals and we all have our own unique ways to handicap games. The bottom line here is that it all comes down to how you see a particular teams chances of winning in correlation with current lines and odds and actually winning your wager. Before the match starts, you still have a fifty-fifty chance of being correct and cashing that ticket. If you have done your homework which should include some statistical analysis, some reading, and you add personal knowledge from seeing a team play, than maybe you will win a few more wagers than you lose. But will it be because of "Value" or will that wager have been considered one of "Value."
Life is really simple in the world of handicapping sporting events. We do know this. The favorites don't always win, the underdogs don't always lose, the overs don't always go over and the unders don't always go under. Heck, you can't argue with that! Just knowing this and living it makes you a better capper already. But what about "Value?"
How is it that you can actually lose more wagers than you win and still come out to the plus side. How is it that you can win more wagers than you lose and still come out to the down side. Is it because your capping skills on looking for "value" is better than others?
So in ending, what is "Value?" Value is your ability as a capper to be able to find just enough winning wagers to turn a profit over a given period of time. Once you have done your homework, set your own odds and lines to go with your games of interest, capped to the best of your ability (we all have different abilities) and checked with the various books for the best possible odds or lines for that solid wager, than you have found "Value."
So you see taking that so called favorite at plus money means nothing if you can't pick winners. Yes, VALUE is truly in the eye of the beholder!
Michael Bubulka
Sharp and Steady Sports Picks
What category do you fall under? The article this month is a short and to the point article that is meant to help you decide, Why am I betting on sporting events and what type of sports bettor am I.
The cheerleader and hope type of sports bettor is a bettor who finds himself/herself in front of the television set jumping up and down with every high and low that comes with every play of the game. On many occasions, the poor television set takes a verbal and physical beating if things aren't working out in that game as thought by the sports bettor. This type of sports bettor is looking for not only to make the game exciting but they look at it as a way to make some quick cash. The cheerleader and hope sports bettor generally bets with their heart and they bet with or against the same team over and over again. The cheerleader and hope sports bettor spends very little time handicapping very many games if any at all and varies the amounts bet on those games they choose to take. The bottom line for the cheerleader and hope sports bettor is that they do it for some fun and enjoyment and if they lose sometimes they get mad, other times they blame the world, but most often its the thought of "I only lost a few bucks and will get it back next time!"
The unemotional and learning type of sports bettor is a bettor who finds himself/herself in front of the television set as if they were students in a classroom. Some may even take notes and jot things down for future reference for tomorrow when they handicap the next set of games. This type of sports bettor is not looking to make the game exciting, but is simply following it to see if it was capped and played out for the reasons it was bet in the first place. The unemotional and learning sports bettor does not bet with his heart but with his head and finds himself/herself looking ahead toward future potential match ups. This type of sports bettor spends a minimum of 8 hours a day handicapping a ton of different teams and daily schedules and knows sports knowledge is power when handicapping sporting events. The unemotional and learning sports bettor doesn't think about quick cash, wagers the same amount on each game, and looks at each game as just a game in the grand scheme of things knowing that sports betting can show monetary gain if looked upon as a long term proposition. The bottom line for the unemotional and learning type bettor is they are usually doing it to make some extra cash to help pay the bills and there are a handful out there that actually make a living off sports betting. This group knows that one game means nothing whether it is won or lost, but that the outcome is used by the handicapper as ammunition for the next game to be played
There are millions of sports bettors world wide and I'm figuring most folks out there fall strictly under one category or the other. There are a small percentage of you that just might fall a little under both and surely some have visited both categories as the years have passed and the sports betting grind has taken its toll. Whether you are a $10 bettor or a $1000 plus bettor you must fall somewhere and the amount you wager has nothing to do with it!
So what category do you fall under? There is no right or wrong.......there just is!!
Michael Bubulka
Sharp and Steady Sports Picks
So you read through a sports handicapping forum and everything you read from a ton of good handicappers leads you to reason that a good sports wager would be to take Cincinnati -6 against Syracuse. After all 70% of those good handicappers say its a solid wager, besides Cincinnati is at home and can score points facing a Syracuse team that has trouble scoring.......heck -6 is a bargain. So you put your hard earned cash down expecting that you have a very good chance of cashing that ticket.....................and than it hits you. Final score Syracuse 31 Cincinnati 6.
But how could that happen. Now is when the blame game starts! I thought you said that it was a good pick. I thought you were good at picking winners. Thanks to you I lost all my money. Yes, this list of blame goes on and on but the bottom line is...........this is what might happen when you follow or tail another persons pick. Lets look a little deeper into this common practice.
There are basically three types of sports handicappers out there in the world. First there is the serious handicapper who go through a ton of games looking through stats, reading articles and previews, watching and learning for future reference, and generally spend hours a day doing all that handicapping and for various reasons. The second type of handicapper is what I will call the part time handicapper as this type of handicapper tends to not be as serious as some but more serious than others, looks through some games, might read up a little extra on a game that interests him/her, only watches games that they have action on, and spends a couple of hours a day handicapping. The third and final group of handicappers I will call the "Lame and Blame Handicapper" who basically does no handicapping at all and simply wagers on games for the hell of it and for better or worse, games that others have told them to take without even a hint of knowing why.
Now as the three different types of handicappers have been identified, it must be mentioned that there is nothing wrong with falling into any of those specific categories. Everyone handicaps and wagers on games for different reasons and the outcome of those wagers will vary depending on which level or category you the handicapper chooses to perform.
In the first group of handicappers our serious handicapper, we have the folks who will win more games than they lose simply because of some very hard work. This serious handicapper does accept the fact that they will lose some games, that there is no such thing as a sure thing, and that a lost wager is just that.........just one lost wager. The middle group of handicappers, the part time handicapper is that group of folks that will tend to win some and lose some wagers and hover around 50%. This middle group of handicappers tends to have some good emotional wagering moments as well as some bad wagering emotional moments. Our last group of handicappers, our "Lame and Blame" group of handicappers, tend to lose more wagers than they win. This third group of handicappers does tend to lose more games than they win and for two good reasons. One, they don't spend any time handicapping and two, they tend to blindly follow or tail picks recommended by others which can be a recipe for disaster. This "Lame and Blame" group if you haven't guessed it, loves to blame others if the pick is not a winner even tho there is hope if they just tweak their thinking ever so slightly.
It is my opinion that there is only three ways to handicap games.
1) The best method. Handicap the games yourself which means spending as much time and effort as you possibly can to increase your chances on picking a
few more winners than losers. You can sprinkle in ideas that you obtain from other handicappers as they may have additional insight for you on a particular
match up. However that final decision must be your final decision.
2) The 50/50 method and I consider this the worst method. You can handicap very little and start taking advice and ideas from a ton of different handicappers.
The problem with this style of handicapping or tailing of picks is that you may just happen to follow or a tail a pick of someone else that happens to lose that
particular game. Even the best handicappers will lose 4 times out of every 10 wagers and if you keep jumping in at the wrong time than it can simply kill
your bankroll.
3) The all in tail and following of another handicappers pick which can be a very good method if done under the right conditions and with the right handicapper.
If you are following or tailing just one respected handicapper, you can eliminate the possibility of jumping in taking picks when they are losers from a ton of
different folks. The key here is that you must be "All In" and follow the one handicappers picks for a long period of time and not follow a bunch of different
handicappers and play the pick and choose game with the potential of jumping in a playing a losing pick. You must also have a bankroll set aside to follow that
one special handicapper of choice as even the good handicappers will lose some wagers.
If you haven't experienced it already, handicapping sporting events can be a daunting and time consuming task. It is those people who spend a lot of time and effort on handicapping those games that can help you pick some winners. So, if you are going to tail or follow the picks of others, than make sure you do it the proper way unless you want to take the easy way out and say......." Thanks its your fault I lost!"
Michael Bubulka
Sharp and Steady Sports Picks
